The third in a series looking at the issues facing the world in the 21st century, on a local level. <Editor's Note>
The speculation of economists and world watchers for the 21st century assumes that China and India will become superpowers in their own right, able to compete with the United States in terms of global superiority, military strength and, of course, economic power.
With populations in both these countries numbering over 1 billion, and fast rates of economic growth, this idea is not some flight of fancy, but a very likely outcome. Both India and China are nuclear capable states. They have successful space exploration programs and vast tracts of land as well as people under their jurisdiction.
Out of all the articles on how the future will affect me as a Londoner that I am writing, this one is the hardest to grasp. Just how will the rise of China and India affect me? Unlike rising fuel costs or changes in sea level, the rise of two potential superpowers is one that is hard to translate into simple terms. Also, there is no guarantee that either of these countries will reach superpower status.
During the 1980s, Japan with its vast economic prowess was feted as the next nation to reach superpower status. Today, even though Japan still has a massive amount of economic clout in the world, the notion of a Japanese superpower seems farfetched. The same could happen to India or China, but for the purposes of this article, I will assume that both countries will assume their roles as superpowers within the 21st century.
Both countries were subject to colonization by Britain (and other European powers) and, since the end of the Second World War, have worked hard to shake off the heritage of the colonial era. Interestingly, both India and China until the latter part of the 20th century were quite inward looking and had followed broadly protective policies with regard to their economy (obviously, the ideology of these countries were very different during the mid-20th century). They then revolutionized themselves, and so within the last 15 to 20 years, China and India have managed to achieve rapid rates of economic growth and an increasing presence on the world stage.
Very grand statements, but how will this affect me as a Londoner? Interestingly enough, the change is already being felt within the make-up of the city's population.
Traditionally, post-war migration from these entities did not directly come from their sovereign territory, but from their overseas populace. The Chinese people that came to London up until the 1980s were mainly from Hong Kong, Singapore or Malaysia. Likewise, those from the subcontinent were either East African Indians or from the peripheral countries of Bangladesh and Pakistan. The people from India itself were far outnumbered by their cousins beyond the borders. This was a result of the relative restrictions placed by their governments as well as their economic advancement, relative to the metropolitan countries.
Today, that has changed. As both India and China have relaxed travel restrictions on their citizens, so their own people are moving abroad for both study and settlement. Their increased prosperity has also allowed their own people to actually afford the expense of relocating to a new country in order to work, study or carry out new business. In terms of tourism, there are increasing numbers of the nouveau riche from India and China who are traveling to London to take in the sights, the same way as tourists from the developed world come to visit this city.
These changes however, are merely cosmetic. London has always been a magnet for people throughout the world, a symbol of its success as an economic powerhouse. What is more important is how India and China's development will actually affect me as a citizen of this city.
First, in terms of military clout, it is unlikely that both India and China's increased power will affect me. Like Britain, both India and China are pursuing a capitalistic path with a largely secular base broadly similar to the U.K. (of course, the detail is far more complex). Second, in terms of political power -- again, due to the broadly similar wants and needs of the respective governments -- it is more likely that cooperation will be the key factor in this relationship between Britain and the two emerging superpowers.
The main way that I, as a Londoner, will be affected by the rise of China and India will be economically. Already, this has begun to happen. The bulk of my goods that I purchase now come from China.
London has a relatively low manufacturing base and this has led to few job losses in this city (although the rest of the United Kingdom has suffered heavily through industrial decline). Many basic services such as call centers for utility or software companies are now outsourced to India, again, not having an adverse affect on the job market of London. However, as the economies of China and India become more sophisticated, they will begin to compete with London as a mover of global money, with the financial markets, London's main source of revenue.
What will begin to happen is that many of the lower end jobs such as accounting will begin to slip away to these countries as companies within the U.K. will look at ways of cutting down on employment costs. Eventually, there may be the relocation of whole offices and institutions to these countries, just as factories and call centers have relocated to India and China over the past decade. Such a movement would devastate the London economy and change the very essence of the city that I currently live in.
Life however, must go beyond the economic, and there too, China and India will have an unmistakable impact. Already culturally important in terms of food and film, the rise of these two countries will also mean that their cultures will go beyond their migrant communities in London, towards the mainstream of the city. Already Bollywood is the largest production center based within the city and the rising popularity of its films means that again and again, Indian cinema regularly features in the top 10 lists throughout the country. In terms of Chinese culture, there is a growing appetite for Mandarin lessons and travel to both these countries from people in the U.K. is growing at unprecedented rates.
London is a unique city, helped by the large numbers of Indians and Chinese from the diaspora that live in this city. This cultural link will be essential to keeping London economically sound and ready to adapt to the growing needs of the superpowers of India and China.
Just as Britain's fall from eminence after the Second World War actually strengthened the city, so will its continuing openness to economic and cultural change allow it to adapt to the rise of India and China. It will take a government that is actually willing actively to engage and trade with these two great nations and companies and individuals based in London who can see the opportunities of working with India and China. The utilization of new technologies and the willingness to serve these two growing powers will be essential if London is to adapt to the changing world as China and India emerge.
The continued cultural depth of these two great nations will also make London a far more eclectic city, as its own global outlook will embrace the rising stars of these two countries. Difficult times and changes do lie ahead, but the future of London with a dominant China and India looks set to be a rosy one. As is often the case with London, it is the people within the city who adapt the fastest that will be the ones to benefit the most.
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