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| Georgian War Fallout in the Middle East |
| Russian weapons sales to Syria could spark new regional arms race |
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Yehonathan Tommer (tommery06)  |
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Published 2008-08-27 06:05 (KST) |
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The diplomatic fallout from this month's war in Georgia could fuel a Middle East arms race if Russia responds to Syrian requests for advanced missile systems and sophisticated weaponry that will upset the strategic balance with Israel.
Russia's invasion of Georgia placed Israel afoul of vital Russian interests in its backyard, which Moscow moved to defend. The Syrians cleverly exploited the resulting tensions to boost their own strategic needs vis-a-vis Israel.
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FROM THE SECTION |
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| How did this happen? It was once common for young retired Israeli generals to take up farming or high-tech careers in their kibbutz or moshav communities. Others found new careers in municipal or national politics. Yet others were appointed to top managerial positions in charitable organizations or corporate businesses.
More recently, ex-generals are making lucrative careers training foreign armies and security and intelligence services around the world and less so for South American drug barons, imparting Israeli know-how and expanding the arms trade -- all in the name of making the world a safer place against global terrorism.
The Israeli military, however, was a small fry in Georgia after it gained independence with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Their contribution to training Georgia's mini army was marginal and exaggerated by the foreign media compared to the role played by the United States and NATO countries in Georgia's economic growth and development.
Encouraged by Georgian leaders, each in their own way had sought to promote democratization and a Western orientation in the former Soviet Republic.
All's well and good when private Israeli entrepreneurship dovetails with Israeli state interests. But if the Israeli government does not exercise judgment and control over the countries and partners with whom its ex-generals do business, the damage to state political and economic interests can be disastrous, notes Russian affairs specialist Amnon Sella.
The Russian invasion of Georgia turned out to be a classic Israeli mistake of helping to "arm a friend (Georgia) who was the enemy of a friend (Russia)."
Damascus saw the crack opening up in Israel's credibility with Russia on the Georgian issue and moved in to spoil what were essentially good ties. They proposed that Moscow deploy Russian long-range S-300 surface-to-surface missiles on Syrian soil to counter the US agreement to deploy long-range missiles on Czech and Polish soil, which Russian leaders viewed as a forward NATO base threatening Russia.
Russian and American rivalry over spheres of influence in Central Europe and Central Asia has no parallel in the Middle East. But the Syrian offer was attractive as another way of avenging Russia's humiliation by NATO's peacekeeping activities in Serbia and Kosovo.
Syria's military muscle is no match against Israel's superior technological capabilities. But with a major power like Russia re-equipping Syria's outmoded military machine, the Kremlin can use its influence with Syria for global diplomacy.
Syria, for its part, by siding with Russia as it had during the Soviet era, can boost its deterrence to parry Israeli demands for severing Syrian ties to Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov assured Israel that Moscow has no intention of deploying state-of-the-art Iskander antiaircraft missile systems in Syria, which Russia sold to Iran and are already operational. In the recent past, Russia did not always listen to Israeli objections.
But it is prepared to respond favorably to President Bashar Assad's shopping list and supply him with weapons that do not upset the strategic balance.
This is no new Cold War with a balance of nuclear terror between the US and Russia. But if Russian arms begin flowing to Syria and from there trickle to Hezbollah, this will militarily strengthen the Iranian-led "spoilers" and seriously exacerbate existing Middle East conflicts.
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©2008 OhmyNews
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 Comments Note: Kindly refrain from personal attacks and profanity. |
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1. Iskander
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jbryant , 2008-08-27 07:02
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