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| North Korea Going Underground? |
| Analysts, officials uncertain about possibilities of nuclear test |
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Ludwig De Braeckeleer (ludwig)  |
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Published 2006-08-25 11:54 (KST) |
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Last week, ABC News and CNN were told by unidentified U.S. officials that North Korea seems to be preparing for an underground nuclear test. "It is the view of the intelligence community that a test is a real possibility," a senior State Department official told ABC News on Aug. 17.
A U.S. intelligence agency has recently picked up "suspicious vehicle movement" at a location suspected by the U.S. to be a nuclear test site, a senior military official was quoted as saying.
The suspicion seems to be widely shared among members of the U.S. Intelligence community. "It is the view of most in the community that there is a 50-50 chance North Korea will conduct a nuclear test by the end of the year," one analyst stated.
North Korea has consistently expressed a willingness to demonstrate its nuclear capability. On Oct. 17, 2003, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry of the DPRK told a the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), "Recently some people of the international community argued whether the DPRK possesses a nuclear deterrent force or not, in an attempt to sound out its inmost thinking. The DPRK, however, does not care about this. When an appropriate time comes, the DPRK will take measures to reveal its nuclear deterrent to public scrutiny as a physical force, and then there will be no need to have any more arguments."
In May 2004, DPRK foreign minister Paek Nam-soon added, "I don't think mere devices and the possession of nuclear material constitute a genuine deterrent. When we say deterrent, we mean a capability that can deter an attack."
General Ri Chan-bok, spokesman for the Korean People's Army said: "When we can't develop (our nuclear capability further) without testing, we'll test."
Observers have often concluded that Kim Jong-il believes North Korea needs to demonstrate its nuclear capability in order to be taken seriously by the United States.
The U.S. has announced several times that North Korea was about to conduct a nuclear test. For instance, on Sept. 12, 2004, The New York Times reported that some experts believed that a series of actions by North Korea could indicate that the country was preparing to conduct its first test explosion of a nuclear weapon.
Underground nuclear tests are, by their nature, very difficult to predict. The nuclear tests by India and Pakistan in 1998 caught U.S. intelligence agencies totally off guard.
The underground blast causes a shock wave lasting a few microseconds. Blast data are transmitted instantaneously to recording computers before being obliterated by the blast. These data provide nuclear scientists with valuable information about the nuclear device's performance. The bundles of cables carrying the data constitute one of the rare visible signs that may be used to detect preparation for an underground test.
In a September 2004 article, the Times wrote, "One official with intelligence access called it a series of indicators of increased activity we believe would be associated with a test, saying that the likelihood of a North Korean test had risen significantly in just the past four weeks. The activities included the movement of materials around several suspected test sites, including one near where intelligence agencies reported last year that conventional explosives were being tested that could compress the plutonium core and set off a nuclear explosion."
But the article cautiously added, "Officials have not seen the classic indicators of preparations of a test site, in which cables are laid to measure an explosion in a deep test pit."
U.S. officials now claim that spy imagery has revealed a sure sign. Indeed, the activity detected includes the unloading of large reels of cable outside P'unggye-yok, an underground facility in northeast North Korea. Officials would not say whether the imagery came from a satellite or a U-2 aircraft.
Asked how the U.S. would respond to a North Korean test, President George W. Bush declined to answer. "Well, it's a hypothetical question, and you're asking me to divulge any intelligence information I have, and I'm not going to do that, as you know. I'm not going to break tradition," Bush told reporters at the White House on Aug. 18.
"If North Korea were to conduct a test, it's just a constant reminder for people in the neighborhood, in particular, that North Korea poses a threat. And we expect there to be -- we expect our friends and those sitting around the table with us to act in such a manner as to help rid the world of the threat," Bush added.
"A nuclear test is going to be alarming and troubling for everyone and would cause a very strong reaction, I think, from all of North Korea's neighbors," said former National Security Council official Michael Green on ABC News a day earlier.
"North Korea's nuclear ambitions pose a threat to the international community. North Korea continues to defy their commitment to abandon all nuclear weapons and nuclear programs made in the September 2005 Joint Statement," a White House spokesman stated on Aug. 17.
"We continue to consult with friends and allies and to urge those with influence with North Korea in the region to use that influence to dissuade North Korea from further provocative actions and to return to the six-party talks," he added.
U.S. officials are more cautious about the likelihood of the test than they have been in the past. Last year, after U.S. spy satellites picked up similar suspicious activity, some predicted that a nuclear test was imminent. Again, nothing happened.
The Japanese Defense Agency in Tokyo said it had received no information concerning a North Korean nuclear test.
Lee Yong-joon is the head of the South Korean Foreign Ministry's task force on the North Korean nuclear issue. "We are monitoring movements in North Korea in preparation for any possibility of a nuclear test," he told the Associated Press on Aug. 17.
"The United States and South Korea share all intelligence and evaluations related to North Korean movements," he added.
Similarly, South Korean Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok stated that he was not aware of any new evidence to support the report.
"I have never heard of concrete evidence that North Korea is preparing a nuclear test," Lee said during lawmakers' questions at the National Assembly.
Nevertheless, South Korea is strengthening its monitoring of North Korea's nuclear activities. Six military personnel were recently stationed at a state-run seismology center to be on constant alert for any test.
According to an analysis by Satoshi Morimoto of Takushoku University, "carrying out nuclear tests inside North Korea would be an extremely sticky action. That is because this kind of nuclear testing could only be carried out underground. There is absolutely no way they could do it in the air or above ground."
But he also pointed out that an underground nuclear test would be challenging. Such a test would require 50 sq. km (19.3 sq. miles) of desert to avoid damaging aquifers. As North Korea has a very abundant system of aquifers, an underground nuclear test would disperse radioactive materials into the water supply for the whole of the Korean peninsula. Later, the radioactive elements would flow out into the Sea of Japan.
"As a consequence, if there were any underground nuclear testing on the Korean peninsula, it would not be just the ecosystem, but also the topography of the land that would be damaged," Morimoto concluded.
After Pakistan's 1998 nuclear test in the Kharan Desert, a U.S. spy plane acquired air samples. Analyses of these samples revealed the presence of plutonium. At the time of these tests, Pakistan was not in possession of enough plutonium to fabricate a bomb.
The most likely explanation of this phenomenon is that North Korea had participated in a joint test with Pakistan of an atomic weapon. In turn, this would indicate that North Korean scientists are well aware that an underground test on the peninsula is not feasible without leading to a radiological disaster.
On Wednesday, South Korea's foreign minister warned that the political consequences of a nuclear test would be equally as devastating as the environmental ones.
"If North Korea conducts a nuclear test, it would be a far more serious situation than the missile tests, something that would shake the foundation of international non-proliferation efforts and pose a very serious threat," he as quoted as saying by the New York Times, on Aug. 23.
"So far, it is viewed as a possibility, and interested countries are sharing intelligence and keeping a close eye on the North's activities," he added.
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©2006 OhmyNews
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