|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| The Energy Enigma |
| Europe is wandering aimlessly into the abyss |
|
John Horvath (jhorv)  |
 Email Article
 Print Article
|
|
|
|
Published 2007-04-05 06:22 (KST) |
|
|
|
There are two uncomfortable facts that Europeans have to face up to when dealing with the question of energy. The first is that since 1999 the price of oil has tripled; the second is that Europe doesn't have a clear energy policy, this despite recent attempts to formulate one. Aside from the special provisions for coal and nuclear power in the treaties, the E.U. as a whole has hardly addressed issues of energy sources and security of supply. And yet the E.U. already imports half of its energy. By 2030 that figure is set to rise to 70 percent.
Coal production in the 15 E.U. countries is falling -- imports overtook production in 1995 -- and are now less than half of the level ten years ago, and one seventh of the output in the early 1960s. Portugal and Belgium no longer produce coal at all. Germany and Spain are running down their mines, and France stopped in 2004. Only Britain's privatized mines have any chance of competing. Poland produces more coal than the entire E.U., but had to restructure its industry when it entered the E.U. If there is a future for European coal, it is only as a strategic reserve in times of crisis.
 |
TODAY'S TOP STORIES |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
FROM THE SECTION |
|
|
|
|
| The popular alternative to coal for electricity generation is natural gas. Already 15 percent of electricity comes from gas power stations, and this is expected to rise to 40 percent by 2030. Europe already imports 40 percent of its natural gas -- the major suppliers being Russia and Algeria. Gas is controlled by the oil companies and its market price is linked to that of oil.
But like the U.S., Europe's dependency on oil is its major weakness. While Europe has managed to reduce its dependence on oil since the crises of the 1970s, imports still account for three quarters of oil consumption and are expected to approach 90 percent by 2030. With 40 percent of imports already coming from the politically unstable Middle East, this is obviously a matter of concern.
On top of all this, it's quite clear that the burning of fossil fuels -- coal, oil and gas -- is perceptibly changing our climate through the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. If Europe is to have any chance of meeting the targets agreed at Kyoto, it needs to make drastic changes.
To this extent, some argue that the only major source of energy that does not contribute to global warming is nuclear energy. Indeed, originally the Euratom treaty of 1957 set out to reduce the E.U.'s dependence on imported oil by developing nuclear power. At present, nuclear power generates 35 percent of electricity within the E.U.
But much of the installed plants are aging, and to maintain current levels of energy production Europe would need to build about 70 new reactors before 2025. Moreover, five of the eight E.U. states with atomic reactors have decided to phase out nuclear energy. Only in Finland is there any prospect of new stations being built in the next few years.
Yet, following the accidents at Three Mile Island in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986 -- not to speak of the problems of waste disposal -- there is no public support for nuclear power. In fact, over 100 non-governmental organisations (NGOs) had called on the European Convention not to include the Euratom Treaty in the EU constitution. The NGOs are critical of the nuclear research grants and subsidized projects, over which the European Parliament has no jurisdiction. Many claim that Euratom is biased, out of date, and undemocratic. Also, the way in which the treaty was originally designed was to require each member state to
promote nuclear power.
With its coal industry undermined by foreign competition and nuclear energy discredited and depleted, Europe cannot be self-sufficient in energy and will continue to rely on imports of fossil fuels unless it looks for alternatives. The only option left is the large-scale development of renewable energy -- wind, solar, hydroelectric, biofuels and geothermal.
Germany offers the most striking example of wind energy growth, with over 4,000 MW of generating capacity -- more than half of Europe's total. The failure of wind power in countries such as Britain (which generates only about 338 MW of power) underlines the importance not just of government support but of having the right policies. Germany's Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff (REFIT) system, which guarantees generators fixed prices for wind energy, is much more effective in encouraging people to build new capacity than the British, Irish and French models, whereby generators bid to provide a fixed capacity at the lowest price.
Possibilities do exist for the use of renewable energy sources to supplant existing sources of power generation. However, if the E.U. fails to develop a concrete energy policy, then renewables can play only a small and limited role in meeting Europe's immediate energy needs. Unless there is the political will to reform the tax system, remove the hidden subsidies that support fossil and nuclear sources, and invest more in research and technological development in this area, then the share of renewables to the total energy supply is likely to rise from 6 percent today to a mere 8 percent in 2030.
This view was reflected in a report by an E.U. consortium of research teams. The report, entitled "World energy, technology and climate policy outlook" (WETO), warned that unless research activities and policies are stepped up to cut greenhouse gases and better promote the deployment of renewable energies, the world will have a huge energy and environmental crisis on its hands by 2030. The WETO study assessed the impact of individual energy projections, energy technology progress and climate change indicators on the future of global energy systems.
According to the report, if current energy consumption trends and structural changes in the global economy continue, the world's energy consumption will be doubled over the next thirty years. In conjunction with this, the world energy system will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels, making up almost 90 percent of the total energy supply in 2030. Oil production will increase by 65 percent and is expected to remain the main source of energy, followed by coal. In fact coal will continue to be extracted and production is expected to double by 2030, with most of the growth taking place in Asia and in Africa, notes the
report.
In Europe, natural gas is expected to be the largest energy source after oil, but before coal and lignite. The report also shows, however, that European gas reserves are limited, which may lead to supply risks, as gas supplies will have to be imported from the Middle East and other regions, in order to meet the E.U. home market demand.
Given the continued dominance of fossil fuels, the report estimates that the world carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) will increase rapidly at a rate of about two per cent a year. Alarmingly, CO2 emissions are expected to be more than twice the level that they were in 1990 by 2030. While CO2 emissions in Europe will rise by about 18 percent, the figures for the U.S. show a 50 percent increase. Furthermore, whereas developing countries accounted for only 30 percent of emissions in 1990, the report finds that they will be responsible for more than half of the world's emissions by 2030.
The report concludes that if other energy sources, such as renewables, were implemented on a larger scale, the costs incurred in order to meet Kyoto targets could be reduced by 30 percent. However, the WETO report concedes that by 2030 such energy sources will represent a very small percentage of the EU energy supply.
Some skeptics note that the untapped potential of renewable sources of energy hasn't been developed because nobody's figured out yet how to own the sun or wind. Meanwhile, the western world's love affair with cars is only certain to make a bad situation worse. The number of cars on the road is increasing dramatically, especially in areas of Central and Eastern Europe. Unfortunately, governments seem more interested in building new highways and expanding existing road networks rather than investing in public transport and utilizing alternative modes of transport, such as rivers and rail.
In many ways, energy is at the heart of a paradox as was highlighted by the publication of a Eurobarometer survey a few years ago. An overwhelming majority of Europeans is concerned at the threat energy consumption poses to the climate. Most also say they favour renewable energy and research in this field. At the same time, however, most Europeans don't feel that their own behavior needs to be called into question. Industry is seen as the main culprit; although many of those interviewed are aware of the importance of saving energy (through insulation and devices that are more energy-efficient), they underestimate the role of personal transport in the energy equation. In short, Europeans show little inclination to change their habits.
Likewise, the "information society" and e-commerce are putting additional strains on existing infrastructure. The demand for energy is such that it has brought power grids to the point of near collapse. Mass blackouts such as those which had occurred in New York and London a few years ago are simply portents of things to come. From this perspective, the future looks dark: while our electronic gadgets spew commodity content and computers chain people to the speed of unflagging machines, electric wires are forming an ever-tightening noose around our necks by which we shall ultimately hang ourselves.
|
|
©2007 OhmyNews
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
How worried are you about the H1N1 influenza virus? |
|
 |
| * Vote to see the result. |
 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RSS
Del.icio.us
Digg 
reddit
Y! MyWeb
Comments Note: Kindly refrain from personal attacks and profanity.
.jpg)
