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| Hungary Descends Further Into Chaos |
| [Opinion] The proposed resignation of the prime minister is a political ploy at best |
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John Horvath (jhorv)  |
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Published 2009-03-23 11:30 (KST) |
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In a bold political move, Hungary's Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany announced his intention to resign at a congress of the ruling Socialist Party on Saturday. While this may have come as a surprise to some, for others this announcement was something to be expected sooner or later. Over 90 percent of Hungarians feel that the country is heading in the wrong direction and the prime minister's popularity rating is at an all-time low of 18 percent.
The prime minister's offer to resign, however, comes with strings attached. His offer only stands if parliament can agree within the next two weeks on a person to take his place. Already this looks highly unlikely. The country's largest opposition party, the Young Democrats (FIDESZ), is refusing to nominate anyone and is calling for early elections instead. Accordingly, replacing the person of the prime minister will not do much as the ability to enact policy still lies in the way power is distributed within parliament. Only with new elections and a redistribution of power does FIDESZ see a solution to the present crisis.
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FROM THE SECTION |
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| Meanwhile, as the former junior coalition partner, the so-called "liberals" or Free Democrats (SZDSZ), has taken up the challenge and is presently looking for someone to replace Gyurcsany, the conservative Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) has already put forward its own divisive candidate, Lajos Bokros. Bokros was the finance minister during the Socialist government of Gyula Horn (1994-8) and was renowned for introducing a set of austerity measures commonly referred to as the "Bokros Package." Recently his nomination as the MDF's leading candidate for the upcoming European Union elections led to a major upheaval within the party, culminating in some members leaving the party and the MDF losing its faction status in parliament. This means that members of the party can now only sit as independents and are restricted in what they can do or take part in.
Although Bokros is so far the first concrete name to surface as a possible successor to Gyurcsany, the likelihood of this happening is remote. Many still have ill feelings regarding the Bokros Package some 15 years ago. Hence, while from an economist's view Bokros would seem to be a fair choice, from a political standpoint he is unpalatable.
It's quite clear that the prime minister's offer to resign is nothing more than a calculated ploy to help bolster his popularity ratings within his own party. Knowing that the various parties can't agree among themselves, Gyurcsany can claim to have ceded to opposition demands to step down. In turn, the inability of parliament to come up with a replacement then vindicates his position that the problem is not with him but with the opposition, for when given the opportunity to act it fails to do so. In the end, Gyurcsany is made to look like an honest statesman who is willing to do what is best for the country.
This ploy is also intended on helping to reconstruct the shattered coalition between the Socialists and the liberals, bringing them closer together. Indeed, it might even go so far as to help re-establish the coalition as both the Socialists and the SZDSZ can claim to have put aside their differences in order to deal with the crisis at hand. Ever since the massive defeat suffered by the government last year during a referendum on its health care and education reforms the country has been ruled by a minority government. Although both the Socialists and the SZDSZ have been working in tandem with each other, on occasion the liberals nevertheless had to publicly distance itself from a government which has become increasingly unpopular.
This is because as with the conservative MDF, the liberal SZDSZ is struggling for its political survival. Many observers anticipate that both the MDF and the SZDSZ will fail to reach the 5 percent minimum required to make it into parliament at the next election scheduled for sometime in the spring of 2010. If this does happen, Hungary will then officially revert to a two-party system much like in the US. This, in turn, will be a testament to the degradation of democracy in Hungary since the end of communism in 1989. When multi-party elections were first held twenty years ago, there were a large number of different parties representing a broad spectrum of political views; nowadays, political discourse in Hungary has reverted to the simplistic bloc partisan politics of left versus right.
As the political machinations surrounding the future of the Gyurcsany government unfold, the country appears to be sinking further into the abyss. The rise in the unemployment rate continues unabated and many experts now forecast a drop in GDP by 5 percent or more. As the state of the economy appears increasingly negative, people are also becoming more worried. There is now open talk of the country going bankrupt and rumors have already circulated that bank assets may soon be frozen. Some have already put their money into gold, both in response to the global economic crisis and to the worsening situation in Hungary. Not many have much faith in the local currency any more. When the Hungarian forint fell to new lows in the beginning of March many rushed out to buy euros or other foreign currency. The rush was such that some exchange offices ran out of euros.
Without a doubt, the political theater going on in parliament will only add to the economic chaos and social angst in Hungary. To observers on the outside, the political system in Hungary seems to be falling apart. For many within the country, the battles being raged are simply the clash of personalities of two leading politicians: Ferenc Gyurcsany on the left, and Victor Orban of the FIDESZ on the right. Neither side appears willing to leave the stage until it has seen the other utterly vanquished.
As a result, the country appears to be adrift with no one capable of taking control of the situation. Hungarians are well aware of this and are waiting for a political Messiah to take them to the Promised Land. This was reinforced recently by a survey which showed that a third of Hungarians would be willing to vote for a viable third option, even though they don't really know what this third option is or represents. What is important is that it's different from the present political elite.
The analogy of the Titanic has often been used to describe situations which have resulted of the global economic crisis. In the case of Hungary this analogy is apt in more ways than one. Until the summer of last year many Hungarians were living in a fool's paradise as they continued to burden themselves with mountains of debt. As with the dance band on the Titanic, the music played even while it was obvious that there was something wrong. Still, for many the significance of what happened hadn't made itself felt. Now, as it's obvious that the ship is about to sink, everyone is scurrying to find an empty seat on a lifeboat that doesn't exist.
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©2009 OhmyNews
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